The size and age of the Cosmos are beyond ordinary human understanding. Lost somewhere between immensity and eternity is our tiny planetary home. In a cosmic perspective, most human concerns seem insignificant, even petty. And yet our species is young and curious and brave and shows much promise. In the last few millennia we have made the most astonishing and unexpected discoveries about the Cosmos and our place within it, explorations that are exhilarating to consider. They remind us that humans have evolved to wonder, that understanding is a joy, that knowledge is prerequisite to survival. I believe our future depends powerfully on how well we understand this Cosmos in which we float like a mote of dust in the morning sky. — Carl Sagan, Cosmos

All my life, science has fascinated me. Science is the ultimate detective story: look for clues, come up with theories to explain them, then test those theories to determine what is true. The scientific method enables us to navigate around our human fallibilities and learn how the universe actually works.

I admit that I don’t have a lot of patience with people who say they don’t believe in science. Science is not like religion; it doesn’t require faith. The evidence is out in the open, for anyone to see and study.

I can, however, understand why someone would want to pretend that climate change isn’t happening or that it will just go away if we ignore it. The problem is huge and scary, and doing something about it will require sacrifice and change, which we humans aren’t very good at.

But I can’t understand how someone can really look at the scientific evidence — even the photographic evidence — of climate change and still loudly, vehemently deny it, even aggressively try to convince people who do accept the science that not only are we wrong, but there is something wrong with us for wanting to act. What do these deniers have to gain by convincing the world to do nothing? Even if they are right — which they are not, but even if — there are many benefits to acting now, not least of which is reducing our dependence on dwindling fossil-fuel resources. But if they aren’t right, what are they arguing so passionately against? Nothing less than the future of the human race. Why would anyone want to be on that side of history?

I recently read something — a short piece in a giveaway magazine, but the message stuck with me. The gist was that as long as we’re fighting one another, our problems will seem insurmountable. But if we can come together and realize that we have common goals, we become more powerful than our problems. The author was optimistic we could do this. I look at the world and I’m not so sure. But I have to have hope, at least for my two-year-old’s future.

Despite all the evidence to the contrary, I still keep my faith in the human race.

Related Articles

• Global Warming Deniers Aren’t “Experts” At All: It’s Time for a New View of Science (alternet.org)
• Psychology provides insight into climate change sceptics. (smh.com.au)

Image by kevindooley via Flickr

Listening to the climate change debate, you’ll hear a lot of voices claiming that climate change isn’t happening, or that it isn’t caused by human activity, or that the effects won’t be as severe as predicted. The underlying message seems to be that there’s no reason to take action to reduce our use of fossil fuels and find alternatives. No matter what you believe, though, the benefits of taking action now are enormous.

Fossil fuels are a limited resource. As supplies become more scarce, the costs of heating homes, running cars and powering our industries will skyrocket for everyone. Now is the best time to start conserving, becoming more energy efficient and looking for viable alternatives — before we’re forced to do those things.

Even if you believe that we have plenty of fossil fuels remaining, foreign countries control the bulk of the supply. They control how much we get and how much we pay. Energy independence gives us more autonomy and therefore more power in the world.

Developing alternatives to our fossil-fueled infrastructure will create jobs and business opportunities. The United States can become the leader in developing technologies that the whole world is going to want. A vital alternative energy industry promises to be the means to economic prosperity.

There are other benefits, of course. Reduce pollution. Conserve water resources. Protect endangered species and biodiversity. Replant forests. Safeguard our fishing industry.

So what’s the downside? The cost of taking action is the biggest deterrent. But weigh that cost against the costs of doing nothing. You may not believe that your house will catch fire, but you buy insurance anyway, just in case. The risks of doing nothing far outweigh the costs.

When you take into account all the benefits of weaning ourselves from fossil fuels, there are no sound arguments for not acting.

While mitigation is a worthwhile long-term goal, it cannot be our only pursuit. Even if we were to completely stop all carbon emissions tomorrow, the damage is already done. Greenhouse gases will take some time to clear out of the atmosphere, so global warming will still continue for some time. How feasible is halting all carbon emissions, anyway? We’d essentially have to ask countries like the United States to change their culture and infrastructure overnight, while making countries like India and China halt all development. That’s not at all realistic, or likely to happen.

It seems clear that some kind of climate change will occur — beyond the damage that has already been done — because total mitigation just isn’t possible. The questions are: How severe will it be, what will the specific effects be, and who will they most impact? That’s why we should devote an equal amount of our resources — or even more resources — to the other two approaches: adaptation and geoengineering.

There is a fourth response that some advocate, which is restoration of damaged areas. I’m not sure how that would work. How can we rebuild a glacier? We can reduce deforestation and plant new trees, however, and we should support all efforts to do so. But that cannot be our primary response.

Since we don’t know exactly what the effects of climate change will be in different areas of the world, it’s difficult to put adaptive solutions in place now. But we can certainly start preparing by researching likely outcomes and developing effective solutions. Research areas should include energy, obviously, but also agriculture/food production and water desalination, to name a couple of low-lying fruit. Private businesses could play a large part in this R&D effort, as long as they are incentivized to do so.

A number of geoengineering proposals, from the feasible to the outlandish, are already out there. These range from building huge artificial “trees” to act as carbon sinks to spraying sea water or even aerosols into the atmosphere to deflect energy into space. Again, more research is called for, as the risks and benefits of each proposal are still unclear, and other workable solutions may present themselves. Some would argue that the side effects of any geoengineering effort are unknown and potentially risky. True, but so are the side effects of doing nothing. If the situation grows desperate enough due to our inaction, then desperate solutions will be employed, by somebody.

In any event, it seems that the best use of our resources is on research and development in the areas of adaptation and geoengineering, as well as — or even surpassing — carbon-emission reduction. The governments and corporations that invest in these areas will be ahead of the curve when the full effects of climate change begin to manifest.

Ideas and facts for this article came from:

• 5 Most Radical Ways to Squelch a Climate Crisis (Discover)
• If we can’t stop climate change, we must adapt (Guardian)
• What would happen to Earth if we stopped fossil fuel use tomorrow? (io9)

Image via Wikipedia

This is a brief summary of the major things we know about climate change. If you want more in-depth information on any of these points, I suggest reading Wikipedia’s Global Warming e-book.

There is virtually a universal consensus by scientific organizations that the average surface temperature of the Earth has been increasing since the mid-20th century, and that this global warming is caused by human activity. Specifically, greenhouse gases produced by fossil-fuel burning and, to a lesser extent, deforestation have built up in the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are named for the “Greenhouse Effect” that they cause, in which they absorb heat that would otherwise radiate into space and re-reflect that energy in all directions, including back at the Earth’s surface. The effects of global warming on the Earth’s climate are referred to as climate change.

Global warming has been directly observed and measured in three primary ways: as a steady, otherwise unexplainable increase in the Earth’s surface temperature over the past several decades; the resulting loss due to melting of glaciers and permanent ice and snow in higher altitudes; and the concurrent rise in sea level worldwide. In the 21st century, scientists predict an average temperature increase of between 2 and 11.5 degrees Fahrenheit.

The primary effects of global warming are:

• increased temperatures causing changing weather and seasonal patterns, especially changes in precipitation
• more frequent extreme weather events, including heat waves, droughts, floods, wildfires and intense storms
• sea level rise due to glacial melting
• reduced water availability in areas that depend on annual snow and ice melt
• increased number of animal species extinctions and reduction in biodiversity
• increased acidification and decreased oxygenation of oceans (which absorb carbon), leading to a die-off of marine life

Many of these effects are already being observed.

Climate change directly impacts critical aspects of human life, including: agriculture and food production; fishing; water resources; incidence of disease; and loss of coastal land. Negative climate change effects will not be distributed evenly across the globe. Those least able to deal with it will bear the brunt of climate change: sub-Saharan Africa; the mega-delta regions of Asia; and small islands. Increased migration and conflicts are sure side effects of climate change, as changes in precipitation and loss of land force populations to relocate.

There are three main approaches to counteracting climate change:

1. Mitigation involves reducing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere through reducing emissions, increasing energy efficiency and developing renewable alternative sources of energy, as well as developing carbon sinks to absorb and store carbon dioxide.
2. Adaptation to changing conditions, such as building dikes at low-lying coastal areas, is an option available mostly to richer countries.
3. Geo-engineering solutions, which deliberately alter the climate, have been proposed, but the risks and costs are still unknown.

The effects of climate change, which are already occurring, will continue to increase regardless of the actions we take now. Even if greenhouse gases are stabilized at the levels measured in 2000, a further warming of 0.9 degree Fahrenheit will occur. However, the longer we put off acting, the greater the impacts of climate change will be.

Step 2: ???

Step 3: Profit!

Although they are human and thus prone to sometimes doing stupid things, scientists, for the most part, are interested in finding and promoting the truth, or as close as we can get to it. When new facts are uncovered, scientists may be reluctant to change their beliefs — another highly human trait — but they do eventually come to a consensus if the new facts can be systematically proven using the scientific method.

Image via Wikipedia

The scientific data show that the Earth is undergoing a large and rapid warming trend that coincides with the onset of industrial activity, specifically the large-scale burning of fossil fuels. The average surface temperature has increased by 1.2-1.4°F over the past 100 years. If greenhouse gases continue to increase, the surface temperature could rise by 3.2-7.2°F by 2100. Observed changes due to climate change have included rising sea levels, longer growing seasons, earlier melting of ice and snow, shrinking glaciers, and changes in the distribution of plants and animals. The faster temperatures rise, the more these effects will be exacerbated.

Despite the overwhelming scientific evidence to the contrary, denial about the reality of climate change, that it is caused by human activity or that it will have devastating effects is at a high. Fear of the effects of climate change, a resistance to change and the lack of an easy fix contribute to this denial. Again, how human of us.

But what do the world’s leading scientific organizations have to gain by convincing us that climate change is happening and we need to take action?After examining the conspiracy theories, it seems that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. Here, the explanation is that this is what the data show, and the scientists are concerned for the future of humanity.

Also see: Climate Wire; The Copenhagen Diagnosis; RealClimate; How to talk to a climate skeptic

Today is Blog Action Day. The subject this year is climate change. This is my contribution.

My son was born in 2008. In 2050 he will be 42 years old, still young and healthy, perhaps with children of his own.

In 2050, if carbon emissions continue to grow at today’s rate, the Earth’s temperature will rise an average of 2 degrees Centigrade by the year 2050. By 2050, outputs of corn, rice and wheat could be severely curtailed. Rising sea levels, water shortages and famine could create up to 1 billion homeless refugees. Natural disasters, such as hurricanes, droughts and floods, will increase, while we will lose many species of plants and animals forever. Disease, particularly insect-borne diseases, will spread to more areas. The effects of global warming will be most felt in developing areas, destabilizing these regions and leading to more conflict. This is the world I’m leaving to my 18-month-old son and his children. This is the world you are leaving too.

But if we halve our carbon emissions by 2050 compared to 1990, global warming can be contained within the all-important 2-degree increase. Scientists predict that keeping the temperature rise under 2 degrees will contain global warming and mitigate its worst consequences.

Scientific evidence (data you’d study in an online school science course) tells us that climate change is real and happening, and it is largely due to human causes. I believe it is the greatest crisis that has ever faced our species. Sometimes, when I think about what is happening to our planet, I feel a profound sense of hopelessness. To effectively address global warming and to curb the effects, we will have to come together in a way that humanity has never been able to before. But more often, I feel a sense of optimism. I know that one of our greatest strengths is that when we put our minds and will to something, we will accomplish it.

At the Nature Conservancy’s Planet Change site, learn more and then spread the word.

• Sources: Reuters; Medical News Today; The Independent; United Nations Foundation; Wikipedia; Science Daily