While mitigation is a worthwhile long-term goal, it cannot be our only pursuit. Even if we were to completely stop all carbon emissions tomorrow, the damage is already done. Greenhouse gases will take some time to clear out of the atmosphere, so global warming will still continue for some time. How feasible is halting all carbon emissions, anyway? We’d essentially have to ask countries like the United States to change their culture and infrastructure overnight, while making countries like India and China halt all development. That’s not at all realistic, or likely to happen.

It seems clear that some kind of climate change will occur — beyond the damage that has already been done — because total mitigation just isn’t possible. The questions are: How severe will it be, what will the specific effects be, and who will they most impact? That’s why we should devote an equal amount of our resources — or even more resources — to the other two approaches: adaptation and geoengineering.

There is a fourth response that some advocate, which is restoration of damaged areas. I’m not sure how that would work. How can we rebuild a glacier? We can reduce deforestation and plant new trees, however, and we should support all efforts to do so. But that cannot be our primary response.

Since we don’t know exactly what the effects of climate change will be in different areas of the world, it’s difficult to put adaptive solutions in place now. But we can certainly start preparing by researching likely outcomes and developing effective solutions. Research areas should include energy, obviously, but also agriculture/food production and water desalination, to name a couple of low-lying fruit. Private businesses could play a large part in this R&D effort, as long as they are incentivized to do so.

A number of geoengineering proposals, from the feasible to the outlandish, are already out there. These range from building huge artificial “trees” to act as carbon sinks to spraying sea water or even aerosols into the atmosphere to deflect energy into space. Again, more research is called for, as the risks and benefits of each proposal are still unclear, and other workable solutions may present themselves. Some would argue that the side effects of any geoengineering effort are unknown and potentially risky. True, but so are the side effects of doing nothing. If the situation grows desperate enough due to our inaction, then desperate solutions will be employed, by somebody.

In any event, it seems that the best use of our resources is on research and development in the areas of adaptation and geoengineering, as well as — or even surpassing — carbon-emission reduction. The governments and corporations that invest in these areas will be ahead of the curve when the full effects of climate change begin to manifest.

Ideas and facts for this article came from:

• 5 Most Radical Ways to Squelch a Climate Crisis (Discover)
• If we can’t stop climate change, we must adapt (Guardian)
• What would happen to Earth if we stopped fossil fuel use tomorrow? (io9)

Image via Wikipedia

So the news has been depressing me again lately. Every day, a new symptom of our continuing destruction of our own planet emerges (like this), and yet when I look around, I see my own country subsumed by bigotry, greed and xenophobia, while politicians and media outlets engage in propaganda and lying on an unprecedented level. No one is focusing on the real problems that face us, and there seem to be no strong leaders emerging who can unite us. If anything, we seem hellbent on our own destruction, both as a society and a species.

I have been fortunate enough to live my life so far in the best, most prosperous period of time and place on Earth for the human species. My most pressing daily problems are uncomfortable bras, telemarketers and trying to lose that stubborn last 5 pounds. But I have a two-year-old son, and every day I worry that the problems we are leaving him will be insurmountable, that the world we are creating for him will be a horrorshow we can’t even imagine. And he will hate us (rightly so) for our shortsightedness and failure to act.

As an individual, I feel powerless. What can I do against an intractable system of government, corrupt politicians, powerful corporations and the bizarre Tea Party insanity that’s distracting everyone from our actual economic, social and environmental problems? I find myself retreating into books, cooking, my own little world, and I know I shouldn’t detach that way. But it seems like that’s the only way to deal with it all.

More depressing stuff:

• The Earth’s busted up, yet humanity is doing just fine. Why is that? (The New Republic)
• Bjorn Lomborg on Global Warming (Metafilter)
• Who’s the company behind today’s Gulf of Mexico oil rig explosion? (Institute for Southern Studies
• Dimensions and Perspective (The Long Game)

I’m just saying, a little consistency would be nice.

Step 2: ???

Step 3: Profit!

Although they are human and thus prone to sometimes doing stupid things, scientists, for the most part, are interested in finding and promoting the truth, or as close as we can get to it. When new facts are uncovered, scientists may be reluctant to change their beliefs — another highly human trait — but they do eventually come to a consensus if the new facts can be systematically proven using the scientific method.

Image via Wikipedia

The scientific data show that the Earth is undergoing a large and rapid warming trend that coincides with the onset of industrial activity, specifically the large-scale burning of fossil fuels. The average surface temperature has increased by 1.2-1.4°F over the past 100 years. If greenhouse gases continue to increase, the surface temperature could rise by 3.2-7.2°F by 2100. Observed changes due to climate change have included rising sea levels, longer growing seasons, earlier melting of ice and snow, shrinking glaciers, and changes in the distribution of plants and animals. The faster temperatures rise, the more these effects will be exacerbated.

Despite the overwhelming scientific evidence to the contrary, denial about the reality of climate change, that it is caused by human activity or that it will have devastating effects is at a high. Fear of the effects of climate change, a resistance to change and the lack of an easy fix contribute to this denial. Again, how human of us.

But what do the world’s leading scientific organizations have to gain by convincing us that climate change is happening and we need to take action?After examining the conspiracy theories, it seems that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. Here, the explanation is that this is what the data show, and the scientists are concerned for the future of humanity.

Also see: Climate Wire; The Copenhagen Diagnosis; RealClimate; How to talk to a climate skeptic

Such a move would take some time, and I don’t think it will be an easy transition for our culture, which is based in so many ways on cheap and easy access to oil. I think the immediate impact would be on driving and other forms of transportation that rely on cheap gas, as well as shipping of products. Where I live right now, you have to have a car to get anywhere, and alternative fuels are likely to be more expensive then gas is now. So I see a fundamental shift in how we think about getting to places and getting the things that we need shipped to us.

A longer term impact will be on products that require petroleum, such as plastics and fertilizers, but I feel we have time to develop alternatives (or learn to live without). Some industries may go away entirely, but I wouldn’t mourn the bottled-water industry if it failed, for instance.
I can’t help but think that peak oil may actually be a positive event in the long run, as it may help reshape the way we live in positive ways and address many of the problems of modern life. For example, the obesity epidemic is caused in part by how need and opportunity to move our bodies has decreased with the advent of the car, and in part by access to cheap, high-caloric, highly processed food made possible by cheap gasoline for shipping and processing. Isolation from the community has become a problem that we may solve ourselves once we become less mobile by necessity. Also, if we aren’t spewing fossil fuels into the air anymore, it can only positively impact the problem of climate change.

Not that it will be all rainbows and unicorns. But here are some other changes I think might be brought about as a result of peak oil.

Small-scale changes in the way we live:

• The way we work would change as rush hour becomes cost-prohibitive, accelerating moves to nontraditional work schedules and telecommuting. You may no longer have to live near your job.
• In the suburbs, neighborhood networks might arise for exchanging goods and services, such as childcare, home repair, tailoring, restaurants and small stores, perhaps ignoring zoning or other laws. Some suburban neighborhoods could effectively transform themselves into small towns.
• If suburbs are not able to provide local access to necessities and public transportation, they may be abandoned, and people may move back into city and town centers.
• There will be more people gardening and owning small livestock such as chickens and goats, as well as more community gardens, even in urban and suburban settings. Already here a roving goat service is available for yard cleanup. But it is naive to think that each family can supply its own food, so we may have to dedicate more land to farming and grow more food locally.
• Pastimes such as recreational shopping and travel will likely decrease as transportation and product costs rise. We will turn more to entertainment that can be delivered digitally.

Larger-scale changes we may see in our culture:

• Inflation will rise. We will probably have to pay more for everything except digital goods. Our days of cheap food will probably be over. As a result, we will buy less, which will impact the foundations of our consumerist economy. I don’t know what the economic or political ramifications might be, but I think this shift would be good for our species in the long run.
• Some industries will be negatively impacted and may go away altogether. I think we would see a steep decline in air travel, tourism and some consumer goods (particularly unnecessary items) causing economic problems as some businesses fail.
• An increased investment in public transportation will be required. Personal transportation may become a luxury item.
• Trains may become important again, especially if they can be designed to run efficiently on alternative fuels.
• Manufacturing, especially of necessary goods like clothing and electronics, may be re-localized if overseas shipping costs become prohibitive. Goods may cost more, but on the flip side, we should see some outsourced jobs return.
• Manufacturing may also be scaled down to serve local markets. New technology may make it possible to run a factory out of your garage.

In the end, it comes down to how we react and where we place our priorities. Do we take a short-term or long-term view? Do we approach the problem with optimism or pessimism? It’s up to us to decide whether and how we adapt.

Related articles by Zemanta

• Peak oil could hit soon – report (guardian.co.uk)
• Squeezing the last bit of oil from Mother Earth (thestar.com)
• Happy 150th, Oil! So Long, and Thanks for Modern Civilization (wired.com)

Today is Blog Action Day. The subject this year is climate change. This is my contribution.

My son was born in 2008. In 2050 he will be 42 years old, still young and healthy, perhaps with children of his own.

In 2050, if carbon emissions continue to grow at today’s rate, the Earth’s temperature will rise an average of 2 degrees Centigrade by the year 2050. By 2050, outputs of corn, rice and wheat could be severely curtailed. Rising sea levels, water shortages and famine could create up to 1 billion homeless refugees. Natural disasters, such as hurricanes, droughts and floods, will increase, while we will lose many species of plants and animals forever. Disease, particularly insect-borne diseases, will spread to more areas. The effects of global warming will be most felt in developing areas, destabilizing these regions and leading to more conflict. This is the world I’m leaving to my 18-month-old son and his children. This is the world you are leaving too.

But if we halve our carbon emissions by 2050 compared to 1990, global warming can be contained within the all-important 2-degree increase. Scientists predict that keeping the temperature rise under 2 degrees will contain global warming and mitigate its worst consequences.

Scientific evidence (data you’d study in an online school science course) tells us that climate change is real and happening, and it is largely due to human causes. I believe it is the greatest crisis that has ever faced our species. Sometimes, when I think about what is happening to our planet, I feel a profound sense of hopelessness. To effectively address global warming and to curb the effects, we will have to come together in a way that humanity has never been able to before. But more often, I feel a sense of optimism. I know that one of our greatest strengths is that when we put our minds and will to something, we will accomplish it.

At the Nature Conservancy’s Planet Change site, learn more and then spread the word.

• Sources: Reuters; Medical News Today; The Independent; United Nations Foundation; Wikipedia; Science Daily

There is a fine line between feeling empowered and feeling powerless. All too often I see people with good intentions trying to make changes who are criticized for too little effort or because their actions won’t have enough impact. We all have to start somewhere, and often that is with small steps. Any amount of change, of shift in the way we think about our world and the way we interact with our environment, has an impact, because it means that — at least in some tiny way — we aren’t doing things in the thoughtless, selfish way we always have. We did not get into this situation overnight, although it may seem so. We won’t fix it overnight either.

I think we need to support and encourage each other. We need to come together as a global community to solve this problem. Criticizing each other because someone’s else’s effort is not big enough or not “right” enough will only drive more wedges between us. Someone who starts recycling today may vote for a particular presidential candidate tomorrow or change their company’s environmental practices or come up with a new way to capture wind energy. You don’t know. We have to try to remember that we’re all in this together.